Polling


Effective polling strategy can make the difference between winning and losing. Every month, we work with campaigns where an understanding of voter preferences makes the differences in their victory. We would like to invite you to learn how survey research can help your campaign.

Ferguson & Associates has conducted polling and survey research for numerous campaigns in the United States.

Polling is critical to a campaign’s victory. Three polls you may want to consider are:

Benchmark Poll: Conducted early in a campaign to learn name identification, determine areas of demographic strength (and weakness) and identify key issues to be emphasized throughout the effort. This is usually the largest poll of the campaign and will also have the first “ballot test.” (25-45 questions)

Brushfire Poll: Conducted during the course of a campaign to determine progress in establishing name identification and any movement in the ballot test. It is also and opportunity to spot check any new issues that may have arisen. (10-20 questions)

Tracking Polls: These are conducted near the end of the campaign – frequently using 100 surveys each night for a period of nights. They will measure the ballot test and determine if the money being spent on media is working and producing the desired effect. (6-10 questions)

In order to guarantee accurate polling results we put in place these measures:

ü  We will balance the survey using three different demographic factors – usually voter registration, gender, and age.

ü  In most states, we survey directly from the voter file to guarantee that we are talking only to voters.

ü  We screen voters at the front porch with a “vote likelihood” question to make sure they are very likely to participate in the target election.

Campaigns that effectively utilize polling for issue and market research spend their money more wisely, and significantly improve their chances of victory. Please let us know how we can assist you with your survey and research needs.

Out of almost 500,000 ballots cast, an effective message made the difference in the Alabama Republican Gubernatorial Primary between Bradley Byrne (137,349), Dr. Robert J. Bentley (123,870) and businessman Tim James (123, 662). Against all odds, our campaign for now-Governor Bentley used polling and an effective message to make the difference.

identify the demographic and geographic make-up of the Robert Bentley primary voter;
identify the greatest strengths of Dr. Bentley’s candidacy;
identify the greatest weaknesses of his opponents;
define a winning coalition and determine the method and cost of reaching and building that coalition; and,
create a model that allows us to predict the outcome based on different levels of turnout.

We’re looking for Bentley’s unique selling proposition –   the most successful candidates are generally the ones who present voters with a unique brand – or unique selling proposition – a policy initiative, candidate attribute, or record that sets that candidate apart from the rest of the field.  The benchmark poll will help us identify the unique “Robert Bentley selling proposition.”

It would be very helpful if you can please list what you believe are the greatest strengths and weaknesses of Dr. Bentley in a Republican primary- in terms of his voting record, policy proposals, CV, accomplishments, etc. And the same for his opponents – Byrne, Ivey, Moore, James. If you have good opposition research on these guys (w/ documentation), include that as well.

Please let me know if you have any questions. If you can have something back to me by tomorrow before our call – even if it’s just a very brief overview – I’d sincerely appreciate it.

Most all voters desire to know five things about a candidate for public office:

1.     What makes you qualified?

2.     What are your positions and principles?

3.     What values do you share with voters?

4.     What makes you the best candidate?

5.     What makes you unique?

The job of Ferguson & Associates is to answer these questions via multimedia messaging and branding that is EFFECTIVE, EFFICIENT, AND EMPIRICAL.